> prioritize-assumptions
Prioritize assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest experiments for each. Use when triaging a list of assumptions, deciding what to test first, or applying the assumption prioritization canvas.
curl "https://skillshub.wtf/phuryn/pm-skills/prioritize-assumptions?format=md"Prioritize Assumptions
Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
Context
You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
Domain Context
ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the prioritization-frameworks skill for full formulas and templates.
Instructions
The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
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For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:
- Impact: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
- Risk: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
-
Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:
- Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
- High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
- Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
- High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it
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For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:
- Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
- Measures actual behavior, not opinions
- Has a clear success metric and threshold
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Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.
Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.
Further Reading
> related_skills --same-repo
> product-strategy
Create a comprehensive product strategy using the 9-section Product Strategy Canvas — vision, segments, costs, value propositions, trade-offs, metrics, growth, capabilities, and defensibility. Use when building a product strategy, creating a strategic plan, or defining product direction.
> pricing-strategy
Analyze and design pricing strategies including pricing models, competitive pricing analysis, willingness-to-pay estimation, and price elasticity. Use when setting prices, evaluating pricing models, preparing for a pricing change, or comparing freemium vs paid approaches.
> lean-canvas
Generate a Lean Canvas with problem, solution, metrics, cost structure, UVP, unfair advantage, channels, segments, and revenue. Use when exploring a lean startup canvas, testing a business hypothesis, or modeling a new venture.
> marketing-ideas
Generate 5 creative, cost-effective marketing ideas with channels, messaging, and engagement rationale. Use when brainstorming marketing campaigns, planning product promotion, or looking for creative marketing tactics.